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Expected Utility Scenario Calculator — result sheet
Calculate expected value and variance for three outcomes with supplied probabilities and utility values.
Inputs used
Results
Visual chart
Breakdown
Calculation steps
Returned data table
Formula and methodology
Formula: Expected value=Σ probability×outcome; variance=Σ probability×(outcome−expected value)².
The probabilities must sum to one, and the output keeps expected value separate from dispersion.
This result follows the calculator's declared inputs, precision, validation boundaries, and model limits.
Input contract
- Outcome 1 value — minimum -1000000000; maximum 1000000000
- Outcome 2 value — minimum -1000000000; maximum 1000000000
- Outcome 3 value — minimum -1000000000; maximum 1000000000
- Probability 1 — minimum 0; maximum 1
- Probability 2 — minimum 0; maximum 1
- Probability 3 — minimum 0; maximum 1
Worked example
| Input | Value |
|---|---|
| Outcome 1 value | 100 |
| Outcome 2 value | 50 |
| Outcome 3 value | 0 |
| Probability 1 | 0.25 |
| Probability 2 | 0.5 |
| Probability 3 | 0.25 |
Expected value =50; variance =1,250.
Assumptions and limits
- Outcomes are mutually exclusive and probabilities are nonnegative and sum to one.
- Values use one unit and probability weights describe the same decision frame.
- Utility curvature, risk preference, correlation, and decision advice are not inferred.
Calculator note
Source and methodology
Use the official WorldCalculate methodology policy for the source, formula, precision, and boundary standards behind this calculator.
Planning estimate, not financial, medical, legal, or professional advice. © WorldCalculate — reuse with attribution. Built and curated by Hassan ALRowaie.
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